I recall remarking, rather flippantly, that I’d put my house onHogwarts Legacywinning Player’s Voice atThe Game Awardsearlier this year. Flash forward to now, as the nominees are soon to be announced, and I’m grateful I didn’t make that bet, or else I’d be packing up my belongings into cardboard boxes and looking for truck rentals. After the year we’ve had, Hogwarts Legacy doesn’t have a prayer, but we might still get one of the most chaotic GOTY votes ever.
There seem to be three games in the running for the award, all with various pros and cons to them:Tears of the Kingdom,Baldur’s Gate 3, andAlan Wake 2. Let’s look at all of them in turn, and a few outsiders too.
It feels harsh to callZeldathe casual choice when it did things other games can only dream of on a machine most studios struggle to get to work, but it’s also the game with the most broad, mass appeal of what I consider to be the three front runners. That could be to its advantage, more fans means more votes, or its disadvantage, as complacency leaves it vulnerable. Despite sky-high reviews, a lot of people (myself included) don’t really ‘get’ Zelda, and the Anything But Zelda vote may be a factor too.
In such a stacked year, remakes and remasters might not get a look in either
Baldur’s Gate 3 has snuck up on Zelda and may now be the front-runner for the main award, boosted a little by the element of surprise. We all knew TOTK would be a 95+ on Metacritic but few expected it of Baldur’s Gate 3 at the start of the year. It’s my personal pick, an all-time top five for me, and the deserved winner. But it won’t be a cakewalk with this year’s challengers.
Working against it is the fact it’s the longest and most difficult game in contention, and seems heavily reliant on its charismatic cast and storytelling for its popularity. Turn-basedD&D-style combat just isn’t that ‘fun’ for a lot of voters, and when you’re looking at a public vote, that will cost votes while a curated jury would overlook it.
Post Baldur’s Gate 3, my all-time video game top five are: Mass Effect 2, Pokemon HeartGold, Crash Bandicoot 3: Warped, Baldur’s Gate 3, and Red Dead Redemption 2
Alan Wake 2is the outsider of these three, but it cannot be overstated how fickle gamers are and the power of recency bias. A significant chunk of the voters will be choosing having just beaten Alan Wake 2, and that will count for a lot. Of course, some won’t have gotten around to it, and like Zelda and BG3, it can also be divisive thanks to its more cerebral nature and narrative structure.
All that, and there’s always room for a wildcard. Part of the reason I thought Hogwarts was so nailed on was not because of its quality, but because of its populism. WhenGhost of TsushimabeatThe Last of Usin the 2020 ceremony, it was taken as a political victory. The Last of Us, with its female protagonists and trans character, was seen as the woke choice; itself ironic given the heavy criticism the game received from the most left-leaning players due to itsheavy-handed allegory to Israel and Palestine.
Ghost of Tsushima,historically inaccurate, culturally appropriative, and good ol’ fashioned fun, represented a victory for the idea that the new wave of game devs and journos were ruining what gaming once was.
They have been hectic in the years since, too.Halo Infinitewon in 2021 despite its release date making it ineligible for the other categories, and even inwhat was admittedly a thin year, looks to have been a poor choice in retrospect. Last year,Sonic FrontiersandGenshin Impactwent head to head ina war conjured entirely for the memes. Heavy favouriteElden Ringeventually finished second between the pair, with Keighley even noting during the live ceremony thatGenshin won “after taking out all the bot votes”.
There are a few contenders for 2023’s wildcard, but then not many would have marked down Genshin Impact last year so it could be anything. There will be six official GOTY nominees, and I suspectFinal Fantasy 16,Super Mario Bros. Wonder,Spider-Man 2,Sea of Stars, andHi-Fi Rushwill battle it out for the other three places. Alan Wake 2’s recency bias that may aid the Player’s Voice vote could hinder the official GOTY vote too - Forza missed out two years ago thanks in part to its late release.
Of all these games, Spider-Man 2 is my favourite but also least likely to win it. Its playerbase is too casual, far more so than Zelda’s, to care about this vote. Final Fantasy and Mario fall into that category to a certain extent, but are usually a bit more connected to gaming culture and therefore should have some chance. However, these fanbases will have a lot of crossover with Zelda and BG3, which could work against them, especially since the vote is in stages and front-runners are revealed before the final round. Sea of Stars is a respected indie but a no-hoper for Player’s Voice, sorry. Hi-Fi Rush stands a chance as TheXboxVote if the green team cares enough to repeat Halo Infinite’s victory, but that’s a big ask with the other contenders.
2023 is, mathematically, the best year for video games in 20 years. That means one of the strongest and, hopefully, most interesting The Game Awards votes since this new version of the ceremony began in 2014. If you made an ill-advised bet on Hogwarts Legacy with your domicile as collateral, I hope you can still cash out.
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