The 2023/24 Oscar nominations have just been revealed and it’s a statement of how high quality last year was that Leo DiCaprio, Margot Robbie, and Natalie Portman being snubbed has been taken as fair enough. Some people call them the 2023 Oscars (these people are correct) due to them being for films released in 2023, and others call them the 2024 Oscars (these people are wrong) due to them being held in 2024, but I’m done fighting, so 2023/24 it is. However, with the nominees announced, it’s always exciting to look ahead to next year and consider who might make a splash at the 2024/25 Oscars, so here are our predictions.
Best Picture
I’ve peppered this list of predictions with a mix of likelys, maybes, and hopefuls.Dune: Part 2and Gladiator 2 seem nailed on to be valiant runners up, though Dune has the best chance of clinching it. Blitz, Steve McQueen’s stories of the struggles in World War 2 is my early pick, and I’d also make McQueen my pick for the first Black Best Director winner. Queer, Sing Sing, and Juror Number 2 also feel likely, though I’m bearish on Wicked after The Color Purple’s snub.
We Live in Time has a lot of the right ingredients with leading turns by Florence Pugh and Andrew Garfield, plus direction from Brooklyn’s John Crowley, but it may prove too light a watch for nomination here. Perfect is probably the biggest outsider, as Olivia Wilde tries to convince audiences she’s a little more Booksmart, a little less Don’t Worry Darling. Ponyboi, the tale of an intersex sex worker on the run from the mob, would need to outperform expectations, but after Joyland was overlooked, the campaign starts here.
Best Actor
Sing Sing and Queer could be the big Oscar darlings of the season, and if they are that will be in part due to Domingo and Craig. Domingo was nominated this year for Rustin, while Craig is yet to be nominated but has chosen a tense romance to attempt to claw his way out from the shadow ofJames Bond. In a similar ilk, Harris was nominated (and lost) four times between 1996 and 2003, but has had no nominations since and with this adaptation of the 1956, could make the fifth time the charm.
Phoenix feels like an obvious pick after winning for this role previously, and if A Complete Unknown arrives in 2024, Chalamet as Bob Dylan has Oscar nominee written all over it. With huge momentum, Kingsley Ben-Adir could take this place for Bob Marley in One Love, but he’s an outsider.
Best Actress
Hedging my bets a little here as none of the Best Actress nominees come from movies up for Best Picture, which seems unlikely. The immediate caveat is that I wanted to highlight both The Outrun and Blitz for Saoirse Ronan, who is a four time losing nominee at the Oscars. She is due a win, and at this stage I mark her as favourite. Similarly, Gaga’s loss for A Star is Born was in part because she hadn’t quite ‘earned’ it across her career - the jury may feel differently this time around.
That same idea of an ‘earned’ nod may cost Mickey Madison and Thomasin McKenzie, but those feel set for two of the most interesting performances of the year. Madison made a big splash with Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and Scream (2022), but has been a little quiet since then. Her return in Sean Baker’s adventure drama could coincide with Baker finally getting recognised by the Academy. Meanwhile, Perfect explores the tale of gymnasts Dominique Moceanu (Mckenna Grace) and Kerri Strug (Thomasin McKenzie) and could be highly volatile.
Finally, Angelina Jolie returning in front of the camera for a French operatic biopic feels like it could hit the right note for voters. Special mention to Zendaya in Challengers and Jessica Lange in Long Day’s Journey Into Night, who I also considered here.
Best Supporting Actor
The 2020/21 Oscars also had three Black actors up for Best Supporting Actor, so despite the lack of historic wins for people of colour, there are steps being made in diversity. One of those actors, Daniel Kaluuya, won that year too - and this year my initial pick would need to be Samuel L. Jackson. How many Oscar wins do you think Jackson has? If you said more than zero, you’re too high. While he did win an honorary award in 2022, the only nomination he’s ever had was back in 1995 for Pulp Fiction. The movie is adapted from the 1987 play and the heirloom piano acts as a catalyst for explorations of racial trauma in America.
Away from that, you just can’t bet against Denzel Washington, who has ten nominations (with two wins) to his name. His role in Gladiator is unknown, and it could be that returning actor Derek Jacobi is the one to get this spot, but this early I have to look out for Denzel. As for Whitaker, I expect Megalopolis to get recognition somewhere and it’s partially here as some more bet-hedging, but backing former winner Whitaker seems the smart bet in that situation.
Stephen Graham’s best work has often gone underappreciated, and Blitz may allow him to reach a bigger audience, getting both the career actor narrative and having something of a breakout, all in a movie I expect to see heavily represented at the Academy Awards next year. As for Faist, Challengers was a frequent hypothetical nominee amongst my predictions last year, but the strike delayed it into 2024 when it will likely run into trouble against director Luca Guadagnino’s other feature, Queer.
Best Supporting Actress
Much like Faist and Challengers, Comer and The Bikeriders was here last year too. That wasn’t delayed due to strikes but distribution problems, which suggests a lack of faith and in turn, a lack of quality and therefore Oscar likelihood. However, I feel it’s only fair to float her again and see what comes down the river in next year’s noms.
Danielle Deadwyler on the other hand was a major snub in the 2022/23 Oscars when she missed out on a nominee for Till - a snub made more controversial by Andrea Riseborough’s nomination for To Leslie, a pick so outlandish the Oscars launched an internal investigation into campaigning techniques, but ultimately her nomination stood. Deadwyler is probably owed a mulligan.
Ariana Grande, once the core selling point of Wicked, is owed very little after her homewrecking scandal which will only ignite when Wicked (also starring Grande’s new beau Ethan Slater) hits cinemas. However, the continued support for Roman Polanski suggests the voters can overlook something as minor as an affair. Hong Chau is proving to be a late bloomer and Yorgos Lanthimos' follow up to Poor Things will be a one to watch if it arrives next year. Finally, if Juror Number 2, all about a jury member (Nicholas Hoult) who releases he may be involved in the crime he’s overseeing, is to be a success it will be carried by its performances, most notably Hoult and Collette.
