Earlier this week,Alan Wake 2,Baldur’s Gate 3,Marvel’s Spider-Man 2,Resident Evil 4,Super Mario Bros. Wonder, andThe Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdomwere announced as the games that will be competing for Game of the Year atThe Game Awards. I’ve played most of them (except for Alan Wake 2, which got sidelined because, between Spider-Man 2 and Mario Wonder, I had just spent $130 on new games). I like them all, and even love a few.
As good as they all are, only one game on the list has any shot at taking home the prize, and that’s Baldur’s Gate 3. Even if you just look at the numbers, it’s clear thatLarian’sDungeons & DragonsRPG is a major contender. Baldur’s Gate 3 is tied with Alan Wake 2 for the most nominations, with each game getting eight nods each. Tears of the Kingdom, which I would argue is the other horse in this race, notched five.
It’s important to remember however that there’s a difference between the audience that votes for The Game Awards' nominations and the audience that votes for its winners. Nods are decided by “an international jury of over 100 global media and influencer outlets, selected for their history of critical video game evaluation.” In other words, the press. The winners are determined by a mixture of that jury (weighted to account for 90 percent of the determination) and the public (accounting for 10 percent). That makeup all but guarantees that Baldur’s Gate 3 triumphs over Alan Wake 2 for GOTY, and will also likely give it wins in most (if not all) of the other categories it’s nominated in.
For starters, let’s look at when these games came out. Baldur’s Gate 3 launched in August, when little else was coming out. It has been able to dominate the conversation this year because it moved out of its original September launch window, dodgingStarfieldand giving it a full month to itself. Alan Wake 2, meanwhile, launched a week after Super Mario Bros. Wonder and Spider-Man 2. Instead of having a month in the sun, it was competing with two of the biggest franchises in gaming. Even now, people are still catching up - that’s the whole reason I haven’t played it, and I’m not alone.
October was a ridiculously busy month for game releases with Assassin’s Creed Mirage, Detective Pikachu Returns, Forza Motorsport, The Lords of the Fallen, Sonic Superstars, Marvel’s Spider-Man 2, Cities: Skylines 2, Ghostrunner 2, Alan Wake 2, and Jusant all launching within a few weeks of each other.
I suspect that many people found themselves in the same position that I was in: very intrigued by Alan Wake 2’s stellar reviews, but holding off on playing it because they just bought Spider-Man 2 and/or Mario and/orAssassin’s Creed Mirageand/orSonic Superstarsand didn’t have the wiggle room in their budget or schedule for another big game. Add in the general consensus around Alan Wake 2 being that it makes a lot more sense if you’ve played the original game (not to mentionControland its DLC) and many players may be waiting until they can play through the recent remaster before they start.
Baldur’s Gate 3 also has the benefit — and I do think it’s a benefit — of being really, really long. Some players may have finished it within weeks of launch, but many will be coming back to it for months on end. While you can play through Alan Wake 2 (or Spider-Man 2 or Super Mario Bros. Wonder or Resident Evil 4) in a weekend, Baldur’s Gate 3 is three games in a trench coat and each of those games is longer than Alan Wake 2. That means that instead of being on players’ minds for a week or two, it can be on their minds, intermittently, for the whole second half of the year. I know that’s how I’ve experienced it, taking breaks for shorter games likeCyberpunk 2077: Phantom Libertyand Mario Wonder, but ultimately coming back to Baldur’s Gate 3.
It’s difficult to talk about how well games sell because that information isn’t made public in a straightforward way. But, by all the indications we have, Baldur’s Gate 3 seems to have sold significantly better than Alan Wake 2. Larian’s RPGexceeded the company’s wildest expectations in its launch weekend, and was among the most played games released this year on Steam alone. We don’t have any data on how well Alan Wake 2 has sold, but Remedy’s post-launch social media posts have focused on good reviews not sales landmarks. Given that studios tend to share numbers if they have good ones to share, no news isnotgood news. That doesn’t mean Alan Wake 2 won’t recoup its budget or ultimately be a success. But it does mean that it’s almost a certainty that many more people have played Baldur’s Gate 3 than Alan Wake 2, and more players means more potential votes. Tears of the Kingdom also sold well, but its predecessor won the top spot back in 2017 and, at the nine previous TGA ceremonies, a GOTY winner’s sequel has never taken home the top prize. God of War Ragnarok didn’t have the same wow factor that its GOTY-winning predecessor had, and I think familiarity will hurt TOTK in the same way.
Anecdotally, Baldur’s Gate 3’s popularity doesn’t seem to differ much between press or player circles. It’sthebig game this year; I can count on most players I talk to having played it. And, whereas some big games — like 2020 winnerThe Last of Us Part 2— were divisive, I don’t know anyone who’s played Baldur’s Gate 3 who doesn’t like it. That’s a problem for Tears of the Kingdom. The newest Zelda was rapturously received by critics with a 96 on Metacritic. But, its building mechanics and reuse of Breath of the Wild’s map were somewhat divisive among players. That asset reuse (which, for the record, I think is good and helped Nintendo innovate in other ways) contributed to the feeling that fans had played this game before. Resident Evil 4, Super Mario Bros. Wonder, and Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 will have the same issue, as each is a sequel or remake that feels similar to the games that came before it. But the audience for BG3 is so much bigger than any of Larian’s previous games (not to mention the BioWare games that started the series) that the been there, done that sentiment just isn’t there.
Among the press and the public, Baldur’s Gate 3 is going to be the most popular choice. If only the press could vote, I would still give Baldur’s Gate 3 the edge. Add in everyone else, and no other game stands a chance.
NEXT:So Many Great Performances Have Been Overlooked At The Game Awards This Year
