2023 might havethe strongest line-up of Game of the Year nomineesThe Game Awardshas ever seen. While many have this down as a shoot-out betweenBaldur’s Gate 3andTears of the Kingdom, all six games fit the bill as ‘GOTY nominee’, and if you look back on previous years, even when there were five nominees, that hasn’t always been the case. But even in thinner years, one thing has remained fairly consistent - January games get shut out. Next year,Like A Dragon: Infinite Wealthcould change all that.
To date, only three GOTY nominees ever have been released in January, and two of those came in the same year. Those two wereMonster Hunter: World(buoyed by its summer PC launch), andCeleste(an indie dark horse that grew in prominence as the year went on) in 2018, andResident Evil 2the year after in 2019. None of those games had a shot at winning. 2018 was also home toRed Dead Redemption 2,God of War, andSpider-Man, while Resident Evil 2 is one of those aforementioned games that feels a bit out of place given its competition - GOTY was won bySekiroin 2019, whileOuter Wilds, Sayonara Wild Hearts,Luigi’s Mansion 3,Fire Emblem: Three Houses, and most egregiously,Disco Elysiumwere not even nominated.
All the previous GOTY winners at The Game Awards
How Resident Evil 2 clawed a nomination out of 2019 I don’t know, while neither Celeste nor Monster Hunter represent typical January releases. The issue January games face at The Game Awards is partly quality - it’s not a month where people spend a lot of money on games, so you’re usually banking on not facing much competition for sales - but also a question of recency bias.Marvel’s Midnight Sunsnot even being up for Best Strategy/Sim at The Game Awards this year is more the result of people forgetting it counts than a statement on how good it is.
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth is not a typical January release. The last few Like a Dragon (Yakuza if ya nasty) games have seen it grow in the West from a cult title into mainstream success, so its upcoming January launch may be a symptom of that aforementioned caution. It is releasing simultaneously with the Japanese version for the first time for a mainline Yakuza/Like a Dragon, and January means it doesn’t risk being outshone by games with better footing in the West. Of course, givenYakuza: Like A Dragon(the names are confusing, this was the first Ichiban game in 2020) released in Japan in January, the Western launch may not be connected at all.
Whatever the reason, it marks Infinite Wealth as the earliest front-runner for Game of the Year. If it continues the momentum the series has had over its last few entries, it will be a huge contender for our first January GOTY winner. With the promise of expansion on Yakuza: Like A Dragon’s turn-based combat,a sprawling Animal Crossing side game, and the sameheartbreakingyet side-splitting storytelling the series is known for, it has every chance.
Ultimately, awards don’t mean all that much - do you loveElden Ringbecause it was Game of the Year, or do you love it because you enjoyed it? - but it would be vindication for fans who have been with the series since the start and watched it grow in the West into one of gaming’s most revered and unique triple-As. It would also be a victory for studios sticking to their own quirks rather than following the crowd.
February is often more fertile ground for GOTY nominees, not least the current holder, Elden Ring.
Of course,Final Fantasy 7 Rebirthlaunches in February, so Infinite Wealth may not be the front-runner for long. But don’t bet against Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth. Like a Dragon is a critical darling, and while there’s a big crossover between Final Fantasy and Like a Dragon fans that could hurt it, Final Fantasy has higher expectations to fill and we could see something similar to this year. Tears of the Kingdom is great, but it’s just more Zelda, and that was how Baldur’s Gate 3 slipped ahead of it.
Beyond those two, it feels as if the challenger may be a game yet to reveal itself - a surprise Switch 2 launch title? ASonytriple-A smash revealed at TGA this year? Hellblade 2 doing what Starfield could not and taking it home for the green team? 2024’s hand is yet unknown, with it likely to have fewer behemoths than 2023’s unprecedented might. I’ll wait and see how I feel after playing the games, of course, but as we look into 2024, I find myself rooting for Infinite Wealth to take home the grand prize. It would break tradition in more ways than one, and that’s the sort of thing worth celebrating.
